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Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

TMDX / Jun 20, 2026 Run #7243

TMDX

TransMedics Group, Inc.

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company provides Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its OCS includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for preservation of DBD donor hearts deemed unsuitable due to limitations of cold storage and for ex vivo reanimation, functional monitoring, and beating-heart preservation of donation-after-circulatory-death hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of DBD and DCD of donor livers. The company also developed national OCS program, a turnkey solution for outsourced organ retrieval; and provides OCS organ management and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, and other coordination activity. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

Composite verdict

D 39.6 / 100
Bearish setup · Mean Reversion 10 drivers · 3 gates blocking
  • Williams %R
  • Bollinger Reentry
  • Fibonacci Retracement
Consider long put target Δ ~0.70 · ~35 DTE Bearish setup, Grade A → ITM put target

Industry rank 29th of 141 in Medical Devices

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: downtrend
Bull 0%Evidence: High · 19 signals100% Bear
Momentum Bearish 34Mean-reversion Bearish 17
  • Late-stage trendTrend signals have been live for 65 bars — past the ~60-bar window; momentum edge decays and can reverse late in a move. (medium confidence)
Where value comes fromMargin of safety -78%
Asset value $13.69Earnings power value $40.02Price $78.79

Priced above its no-growth earnings power value ($40.02/share) — you're paying for growth and franchise expansion, not just current earnings.

Fundamentals Strong

79.1 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
EPS Growth (YoY) 100
Margin of Safety 0
Revenue Growth (YoY) 100
Cash Conversion Cycle 0
OCF to Net Income 97
PEG 4

Technicals Bearish

0.2 / 100

Bearish setup leads (Williams %R, Bollinger Reentry, Fibonacci Retracement); bulls gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Williams %R 11
Declining Volume 21
Bollinger Reentry 21

Risk Gates

3 blocking 6 caution

3 guards active, 21 signals gated.

MA Crossover Blocking

Blocks counter-regime signals only when the MA crossover agrees with the long-term regime.

Realized Volatility Regime Blocking

High-vol regime mutes mean-reversion signals; low-vol regime mutes breakout signals.

Regime Filter Blocking

Blocks signals that oppose the long-term moving-average regime.

Cash Ratio Caution

Visual cash-cushion flag — does not mute signals.

Breakdown

Look under the hood

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Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for TMDX.