Skip to main content

Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

AGO / Jun 21, 2026 Run #7368

AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Composite verdict

D 31.4 / 100
Bearish setup · Reversal 7 drivers · 3 gates blocking
  • Stochastic Cross
  • MA Rejection
  • Engulfing
Consider long put target Δ ~0.70 · ~35 DTE Bearish setup, Grade A → ITM put target

Industry rank 10th of 17 in Insurance - Specialty

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: downtrend
Bull 0%Evidence: High · 15 signals100% Bear
Momentum Bearish 16Mean-reversion Bearish 38
  • Late-stage trendTrend signals have been live for 106 bars — past the ~60-bar window; momentum edge decays and can reverse late in a move. (medium confidence)
Where value comes fromMargin of safety +47%
Asset value $127.88Earnings power value $22.36Price $76.52

The discount is mostly unpriced earnings power: price ($76.52) sits between asset value ($127.88) and no-growth earnings power value ($22.36).

Fundamentals Above average

60.2 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
EPS Growth (YoY) 100
Days Sales Outstanding 0
Revenue Growth (YoY) 100
OCF to Net Income 3
Earnings Yield 100
Cash Conversion 3

Technicals Bearish

2.6 / 100

Bearish setup leads (Stochastic Cross, MA Rejection, Engulfing); bulls gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Stochastic Cross 12
MA Rejection 19
Engulfing 21

Risk Gates

3 blocking 3 caution

3 guards active, 25 signals gated.

MA Crossover Blocking

Blocks counter-regime signals only when the MA crossover agrees with the long-term regime.

Realized Volatility Regime Blocking

High-vol regime mutes mean-reversion signals; low-vol regime mutes breakout signals.

Regime Filter Blocking

Blocks signals that oppose the long-term moving-average regime.

Interest Coverage Caution

Weak interest coverage blocks bullish signals — debt-service risk.

Breakdown

Look under the hood

Empty pane

Pick a category, above, to crack it open.

Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for AGO.