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Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

PKG / Jun 21, 2026 Run #7405

PKG

Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

Composite verdict

B 70.1 / 100
Bullish setup · Trend Following 12 drivers · 4 gates blocking
  • Multi Top/Bottom
  • Elder Force Index
  • Aroon Oscillator
Consider long call target Δ ~0.60 · ~35 DTE Bullish setup, Grade B → ITM call target

Industry rank 5th of 23 in Packaging & Containers

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: volatile range
Bull 100%Evidence: High · 17 signals0% Bear
Momentum Bullish 97Mean-reversion Neutral 50

No notable composite patterns — the signals don't cluster into a named setup right now.

Where value comes fromMargin of safety -72%
Asset value $51.61Earnings power value $65.10Price $229.02

Priced above its no-growth earnings power value ($65.10/share) — you're paying for growth and franchise expansion, not just current earnings.

Fundamentals Mixed

40.2 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Cash Conversion 88
Margin of Safety 0
EBITDA Margin 85
OCF to Net Income 0
Return on Assets 78
EPS Growth (YoY) 0

Technicals Bullish

100.0 / 100

Bullish setup leads (Multi Top/Bottom, Elder Force Index, Aroon Oscillator); bears gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Multi Top/Bottom 88
Elder Force Index 86
Coppock Curve 85

Risk Gates

4 blocking 6 caution

4 guards active, 21 signals gated.

ADX Trend Weakness Blocking

Weak trend strength blocks trend-following signals in either direction.

MA Crossover Blocking

Blocks counter-regime signals only when the MA crossover agrees with the long-term regime.

Realized Volatility Regime Blocking

High-vol regime mutes mean-reversion signals; low-vol regime mutes breakout signals.

Regime Filter Blocking

Blocks signals that oppose the long-term moving-average regime.

Breakdown

Look under the hood

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Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for PKG.