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Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

BAER / Jun 21, 2026 Run #7418

BAER

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States. The company offers fire suppression services, such as aerial firefighting support for ground crews by operating the Viking CL-415EAF (Super Scooper) aircraft to drop water as part of the initial and direct attack to slow, contain, and extinguish wildfires. It also provides aerial surveillance services via manned (Air Attack) aircraft for fire suppression over an incident and providing tactical coordination with the incident commander, and decision-makers rapid, current intelligence from useful aerial vantage points, giving access to information to support ground firefighters and safety for the public. In addition, the company offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) that provides maintenance and repair services for return-to-service upgrades of the Spanish scoopers, as well as airframe modification and integration solutions for governmental and commercial customers. Further, it operates an aircraft fleet of nineteen planes. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.

Composite verdict

F 26.2 / 100
Bearish setup · Trend Following 12 drivers · 8 gates blocking
  • Coppock Curve
  • Relative Strength vs SPY
  • Rate of Change
Consider long put target Δ ~0.70 · ~35 DTE Bearish setup, Grade A → ITM put target

Industry rank 11th of 23 in Security & Protection Services

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: volatile range
Bull 0%Evidence: High · 18 signals100% Bear
Momentum Bearish 1Mean-reversion Neutral 50

No notable composite patterns — the signals don't cluster into a named setup right now.

Where value comes from

Earnings power doesn't cover the capital structure (high debt) — the EPV decomposition isn't meaningful for this name.

Fundamentals Mixed

52.4 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Days Sales Outstanding 100
OCF to Net Income 0
EPS Growth (YoY) 100
Free Cash Flow Yield 0
Revenue Growth (YoY) 98
Cash Conversion 0

Technicals Bearish

0.0 / 100

Bearish setup leads (Coppock Curve, Relative Strength vs SPY, Rate of Change); bulls gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Rate of Change 10
Relative Strength vs SPY 13
Coppock Curve 13

Risk Gates

8 blocking 2 caution

8 guards active, 22 signals gated.

Altman Z-Score Blocking

Bottom-band Altman Z blocks bullish signals — distress risk.

Debt-to-Assets Blocking

High debt-to-assets blocks bullish signals — balance-sheet leverage risk.

Interest Coverage Blocking

Weak interest coverage blocks bullish signals — debt-service risk.

Net Debt / EBITDA Blocking

High net debt / EBITDA blocks bullish signals — credit-leverage risk.

Breakdown

Look under the hood

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Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for BAER.