Skip to main content

Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

GEO / Jun 22, 2026 Run #7620

GEO

The GEO Group, Inc.

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.

Composite verdict

B 72.4 / 100
Bullish setup · Directional State 8 drivers · 3 gates blocking
  • Rate of Change
  • 52-Week Proximity
  • MACD Signal Cross
Consider long call target Δ ~0.60 · ~35 DTE Bullish setup, Grade B → ITM call target

Industry rank 3rd of 23 in Security & Protection Services

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: uptrend
Bull 100%Evidence: High · 17 signals0% Bear
Momentum Bullish 100Mean-reversion Neutral 50
  • Late-stage trendTrend signals have been live for 69 bars — past the ~60-bar window; momentum edge decays and can reverse late in a move. (medium confidence)
Where value comes fromMargin of safety -57%
Asset value $11.27Earnings power value $3.95Price $29.28

Priced above its no-growth earnings power value ($3.95/share) — you're paying for growth and franchise expansion, not just current earnings.

Fundamentals Mixed

44.8 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
EPS Growth (YoY) 100
Margin of Safety 0
Greenblatt EY 75
OCF to Net Income 0
Net Margin 75
Free Cash Flow Yield 0

Technicals Bullish

99.9 / 100

Bullish setup leads (Rate of Change, 52-Week Proximity, MACD Signal Cross); bears gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Rate of Change 89
MACD Signal Cross 79
52-Week Proximity 79

Risk Gates

3 blocking 8 caution

3 guards active, 23 signals gated.

MA Crossover Blocking

Blocks counter-regime signals only when the MA crossover agrees with the long-term regime.

Realized Volatility Regime Blocking

High-vol regime mutes mean-reversion signals; low-vol regime mutes breakout signals.

Regime Filter Blocking

Blocks signals that oppose the long-term moving-average regime.

Altman Z-Score Caution

Bottom-band Altman Z blocks bullish signals — distress risk.

Breakdown

Look under the hood

Empty pane

Pick a category, above, to crack it open.

Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for GEO.