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Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

MAT / Jun 22, 2026 Run #7621

MAT

Mattel, Inc.

Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

Composite verdict

D 32.1 / 100
Bearish setup · Trend Following 12 drivers · 4 gates blocking
  • Vortex Signal
  • Parabolic SAR Flip
  • Accumulation/Distribution Line
Consider long put target Δ ~0.70 · ~35 DTE Bearish setup, Grade A → ITM put target

Industry rank 15th of 33 in Leisure

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: range
Bull 0%Evidence: High · 25 signals100% Bear
Momentum Bearish 6Mean-reversion Neutral 47

No notable composite patterns — the signals don't cluster into a named setup right now.

Where value comes fromMargin of safety -37%
Asset value $7.69Earnings power value $13.07Price $14.04

Priced above its no-growth earnings power value ($13.07/share) — you're paying for growth and franchise expansion, not just current earnings.

Fundamentals Above average

64.2 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Free Cash Flow Yield 100
Revenue Growth (YoY) 0
Cash Conversion 94
EPS Growth (YoY) 0
Greenblatt EY 83
OCF to Net Income 2

Technicals Bearish

0.0 / 100

Bearish setup leads (Vortex Signal, Parabolic SAR Flip, Accumulation/Distribution Line); bulls gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Vortex Signal 10
Parabolic SAR Flip 11
Accumulation/Distribution Line 13

Risk Gates

4 blocking 6 caution

4 guards active, 14 signals gated.

ADX Trend Weakness Blocking

Weak trend strength blocks trend-following signals in either direction.

MA Crossover Blocking

Blocks counter-regime signals only when the MA crossover agrees with the long-term regime.

Realized Volatility Regime Blocking

High-vol regime mutes mean-reversion signals; low-vol regime mutes breakout signals.

Regime Filter Blocking

Blocks signals that oppose the long-term moving-average regime.

Breakdown

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Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for MAT.