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Fiscal Wizard · Single-issue tearsheet

OSG / Jun 22, 2026 Run #7681

OSG

Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution segment offers property, niche specialty risk, accident and health, miscellaneous specialty, reinsurance, surety, marine and energy, specialty auto, excess and surplus lines commercial package, professional lines, and directors' and officers' insurance. The company was formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Composite verdict

F 17.2 / 100
Bearish setup · Reversal 9 drivers · 4 gates blocking
  • Williams %R
  • Chaikin Money Flow
  • Multi Top/Bottom
Consider long put target Δ ~0.70 · ~35 DTE Bearish setup, Grade A → ITM put target

Industry rank 16th of 17 in Insurance - Specialty

rescore-sweep
Technical synthesisRegime: downtrend
Bull 0%Evidence: High · 13 signals100% Bear
Momentum Neutral 45Mean-reversion Bearish 16

No notable composite patterns — the signals don't cluster into a named setup right now.

Where value comes fromMargin of safety +145%
Asset value $15.90Earnings power value $0.31Price $5.76

The discount is mostly unpriced earnings power: price ($5.76) sits between asset value ($15.90) and no-growth earnings power value ($0.31).

Fundamentals Weak

30.8 / 100

Score-bearing fundamentals shown here exclude gate-only risk checks. · 35 metrics shown.

Strongest
Weakest
EPS Growth (YoY) 100
Greenblatt EY 0
Margin of Safety 100
Free Cash Flow Yield 0
Forward P/E 76
Days Sales Outstanding 0

Technicals Bearish

3.6 / 100

Bearish setup leads (Williams %R, Chaikin Money Flow, Multi Top/Bottom); bulls gated by guards. · 43 signals shown.

Strongest
Weakest
Williams %R 3
Chaikin Money Flow 11
Accumulation/Distribution Line 17

Risk Gates

4 blocking 3 caution

4 guards active, 27 signals gated.

Interest Coverage Blocking

Weak interest coverage blocks bullish signals — debt-service risk.

Piotroski F-Score Blocking

Bottom-band Piotroski F blocks bullish signals — fundamental-quality risk.

Realized Volatility Regime Blocking

High-vol regime mutes mean-reversion signals; low-vol regime mutes breakout signals.

Regime Filter Blocking

Blocks signals that oppose the long-term moving-average regime.

Breakdown

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Every chip in either subscore card drills into the metrics or signals that fed it — including the formula, the threshold band, and what the current reading means for OSG.